Jonava 3–1 Kauno Žalgiris II: Result & Stats

Jonava

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Kauno Žalgiris II

Hugo Figueredo 39'

O. Kayode 13' (OG)

Y. Houat 10' (pen)

M. Tunc 36'

4/4/2026

1 Lyga · Round 5Jonavos centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Jonava54%

×Draw22%

Kauno Žalgiris II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JonavaExpected goals in this matchKauno Žalgiris II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.22

Jonava

1.96

Kauno Žalgiris II

1.22

Jonava creates 61% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 78 away

1.78

creates per match

1.06

1.37

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Jonava

1.78

Kauno Žalgiris II

1.06

allows per match

Jonava

1.37

Kauno Žalgiris II

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par

Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Kauno Žalgiris II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Jonava or draw

76%

Jonava or Kauno Žalgiris II

78%

Draw or Kauno Žalgiris II

46%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+

32%

Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals

86%

Jonava 2+ goals

58%

Jonava 3+ goals

31%

Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals

70%

Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals

34%

Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)

70%

Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

Kauno Žalgiris II away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.15 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.78 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.96

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.06 + Jonava defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jonava scores more

54%

level

22%

Kauno Žalgiris II scores more

24%

Jonava at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Y. HouatPenalty

13'

O. KayodeOwn goal

36'

M. Tunc

39'

Hugo Figueredo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff