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Kauno Žalgiris II vs Banga II — 1 Lyga 2026

Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Banga II
Banga II
5/4/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 8VDU Valdo Adamkaus stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris II45%
×Draw23%
Banga II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.73
Banga II
1.40

Kauno Žalgiris II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 43 away

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Banga II
0.95

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.85
Banga II
2.12

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par
Banga II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris II ↓

Banga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris II or draw
69%
Kauno Žalgiris II or Banga II
77%
Draw or Banga II
55%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+
24%
Banga II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals
82%
Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals
52%
Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals
25%
Banga II 1+ goals
75%
Banga II 2+ goals
41%
Banga II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
59%
Banga II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

Banga II away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.33 + Banga II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.73

Banga II attack 0.95 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kauno Žalgiris II scores more
45%
level
23%
Banga II scores more
31%

Kauno Žalgiris II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Kauno Žalgiris II 2–1 Banga II

Kauno Žalgiris II beat Banga II 2-1 in 1 Lyga on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at VDU Valdo Adamkaus stadionas in Ringaudai.