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Katwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam II — Tweede Divisie 2019

Katwijk
Katwijk
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Sparta Rotterdam II
Sparta Rotterdam II
9/21/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 6Sportpark de Krom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Katwijk49%
×Draw22%
Sparta Rotterdam II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Katwijk
2.00
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.50

Katwijk creates 33% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 102 away

creates per match

Katwijk
2.11
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.75

allows per match

Katwijk
1.25
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.89

finishing

Katwijk+0.00on par
Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Katwijk ↓

Sparta Rotterdam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Katwijk or draw
71%
Katwijk or Sparta Rotterdam II
78%
Draw or Sparta Rotterdam II
51%

Winning margin

Katwijk wins by 2+
28%
Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Katwijk 1+ goals
86%
Katwijk 2+ goals
59%
Katwijk 3+ goals
32%
Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals
78%
Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals
44%
Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Katwijk (draw refunded)
63%
Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Katwijk at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.25 · 99 matches

Sparta Rotterdam II away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Katwijk attack 2.11 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.75 + Katwijk defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Katwijk scores more
49%
level
22%
Sparta Rotterdam II scores more
29%

Katwijk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Katwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Katwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam II

Sparta Rotterdam II beat Katwijk 4-2 in Tweede Divisie on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark de Krom in Katwijk.