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Katwijk vs Hoek — Tweede Divisie 2019

Katwijk
Katwijk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hoek
Hoek
S. Schalkwijk 52'
8/16/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 1Sportpark De Krom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Katwijk43%
×Draw23%
Hoek35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Katwijk
1.79
Hoek
1.60

Katwijk creates 12% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 17 away

creates per match

Katwijk
2.12
Hoek
1.94

allows per match

Katwijk
1.27
Hoek
1.47

finishing

Katwijk+0.00on par
Hoek+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Katwijk ↓

Hoek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Katwijk or draw
65%
Katwijk or Hoek
77%
Draw or Hoek
57%

Winning margin

Katwijk wins by 2+
23%
Hoek wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Katwijk 1+ goals
83%
Katwijk 2+ goals
53%
Katwijk 3+ goals
26%
Hoek 1+ goals
80%
Hoek 2+ goals
47%
Hoek 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Katwijk (draw refunded)
55%
Hoek (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Katwijk at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.27 · 98 matches

Hoek away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Katwijk attack 2.12 + Hoek defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.79

Hoek attack 1.94 + Katwijk defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Katwijk scores more
43%
level
23%
Hoek scores more
35%

Katwijk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Katwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Levi Bouwense
52'
S. Schalkwijk
62'
D. Maatsen← A. Menelik
62'
F. Janmaat← D. van Wageningen
62'
R. Doesburg← M. Suleiman
65'
K. Hebbelinck← S. Hage
70'
K. van der Veldt← J. Ravensbergen
70'
A. Kamperveen← R. van der Meer
75'
Robbie Van Hauter
75'
Finn Janmaat
82'
G. Vandecandelaere← S. Schalkwijk
84'
Maurizio Brenna
88'
Gilles Vandecandelaere
90+7'
Yanilio de Nooijer
90'
Angelo Kamperveen
90+6'
Jarno Lion
90+4'
R. van Gogh← R. Van Hauter

Possession

64%Katwijk

Shots

5Katwijk

Statistics

KatwijkHoek
Overview
64%Possession36%
5Total Shots14
8Corners6
Shots
5Total Shots14
2On Target6
3Off Target8
Passing
64%Possession36%
Discipline
4Yellow Cards4

Match Recap: Katwijk vs Hoek

Hoek beat Katwijk 1-0 in Tweede Divisie on August 16, 2025.

Goals: S. Schalkwijk (52').

Katwijk controlled possession (64%) and registered 5 shots to 14.

The match was played at Sportpark De Krom in Katwijk.