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Katwijk vs Excelsior Maassluis — Tweede Divisie 2019

Katwijk
Katwijk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Excelsior Maassluis
Excelsior Maassluis
5/11/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 32Sportpark de Krom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Katwijk58%
×Draw21%
Excelsior Maassluis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Katwijk
2.10
Excelsior Maassluis
1.21

Katwijk creates 74% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 104 away

creates per match

Katwijk
2.11
Excelsior Maassluis
1.16

allows per match

Katwijk
1.25
Excelsior Maassluis
2.09

finishing

Katwijk+0.00on par
Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Katwijk ↓

Excelsior Maassluis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Katwijk or draw
78%
Katwijk or Excelsior Maassluis
79%
Draw or Excelsior Maassluis
42%

Winning margin

Katwijk wins by 2+
35%
Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Katwijk 1+ goals
88%
Katwijk 2+ goals
62%
Katwijk 3+ goals
35%
Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals
70%
Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals
34%
Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Katwijk (draw refunded)
73%
Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Katwijk at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.25 · 99 matches

Excelsior Maassluis away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.09 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Katwijk attack 2.11 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.10

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.16 + Katwijk defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Katwijk scores more
58%
level
21%
Excelsior Maassluis scores more
22%

Katwijk at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Katwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Katwijk 2–1 Excelsior Maassluis

Katwijk beat Excelsior Maassluis 2-1 in Tweede Divisie on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark de Krom in Katwijk.