Katsina United 2–0 Sporting Lagos: Result & Stats

Katsina United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sporting Lagos

4/21/2024

NPFL · Round 31Muhammadu Dikko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Katsina United65%

×Draw24%

Sporting Lagos11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Katsina UnitedExpected goals in this matchSporting Lagos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.50

Katsina United

1.60

Sporting Lagos

0.50

Katsina United creates 220% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 19 away

1.57

creates per match

0.42

0.58

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Katsina United

1.57

Sporting Lagos

0.42

allows per match

Katsina United

0.58

Sporting Lagos

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Katsina United+0.00on par

Sporting Lagos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Katsina United ↓

Sporting Lagos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Katsina United or draw

89%

Katsina United or Sporting Lagos

76%

Draw or Sporting Lagos

35%

Winning margin

Katsina United wins by 2+

36%

Sporting Lagos wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Katsina United 1+ goals

80%

Katsina United 2+ goals

47%

Katsina United 3+ goals

22%

Sporting Lagos 1+ goals

39%

Sporting Lagos 2+ goals

9%

Sporting Lagos 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Katsina United (draw refunded)

85%

Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Katsina United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.58 · 118 matches

Sporting Lagos away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Katsina United attack 1.57 + Sporting Lagos defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sporting Lagos attack 0.42 + Katsina United defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Katsina United scores more

65%

level

24%

Sporting Lagos scores more

11%

Katsina United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Katsina United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff