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Katsina United vs Lobi Stars — NPFL 2019

Katsina United
Katsina United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lobi Stars
Lobi Stars
9/29/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 4Muhammadu Dikko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Katsina United61%
×Draw26%
Lobi Stars13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Katsina United
1.52
Lobi Stars
0.55

Katsina United creates 176% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 113 away

creates per match

Katsina United
1.57
Lobi Stars
0.53

allows per match

Katsina United
0.58
Lobi Stars
1.48

finishing

Katsina United+0.00on par
Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Katsina United ↓

Lobi Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Katsina United or draw
87%
Katsina United or Lobi Stars
74%
Draw or Lobi Stars
39%

Winning margin

Katsina United wins by 2+
33%
Lobi Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Katsina United 1+ goals
78%
Katsina United 2+ goals
45%
Katsina United 3+ goals
20%
Lobi Stars 1+ goals
42%
Lobi Stars 2+ goals
11%
Lobi Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Katsina United (draw refunded)
82%
Lobi Stars (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Katsina United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.58 · 118 matches

Lobi Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.48 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Katsina United attack 1.57 + Lobi Stars defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lobi Stars attack 0.53 + Katsina United defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Katsina United scores more
61%
level
26%
Lobi Stars scores more
13%

Katsina United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Katsina United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Katsina United 3–0 Lobi Stars

Katsina United beat Lobi Stars 3-0 in NPFL on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Muhammadu Dikko Stadium in Katsina.