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Katsina United vs Kun Khalifat FC — NPFL 2019

Katsina United
Katsina United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kun Khalifat FC
Kun Khalifat FC
1/15/2026NPFLNPFL · Round 20Muhammadu Dikko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Katsina United55%
×Draw27%
Kun Khalifat FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Katsina United
1.43
Kun Khalifat FC
0.70

Katsina United creates 104% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 18 away

creates per match

Katsina United
1.57
Kun Khalifat FC
0.83

allows per match

Katsina United
0.58
Kun Khalifat FC
1.28

finishing

Katsina United+0.00on par
Kun Khalifat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Katsina United ↓

Kun Khalifat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Katsina United or draw
82%
Katsina United or Kun Khalifat FC
73%
Draw or Kun Khalifat FC
45%

Winning margin

Katsina United wins by 2+
28%
Kun Khalifat FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Katsina United 1+ goals
76%
Katsina United 2+ goals
42%
Katsina United 3+ goals
17%
Kun Khalifat FC 1+ goals
50%
Kun Khalifat FC 2+ goals
16%
Kun Khalifat FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Katsina United (draw refunded)
75%
Kun Khalifat FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Katsina United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.58 · 118 matches

Kun Khalifat FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Katsina United attack 1.57 + Kun Khalifat FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kun Khalifat FC attack 0.83 + Katsina United defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Katsina United scores more
55%
level
27%
Kun Khalifat FC scores more
18%

Katsina United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Katsina United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Katsina United vs Kun Khalifat FC

Katsina United beat Kun Khalifat FC 2-0 in NPFL on January 15, 2026.

The match was played at Muhammadu Dikko Stadium in Katsina.