Katsina United 4–0 Gombe United: Result & Stats

Katsina United

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Gombe United

6/8/2024

NPFL · Round 35Muhammadu Dikko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Katsina United68%

×Draw22%

Gombe United10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Katsina UnitedExpected goals in this matchGombe United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.47

Katsina United

1.73

Gombe United

0.47

Katsina United creates 268% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 58 away

1.57

creates per match

0.36

0.58

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Katsina United

1.57

Gombe United

0.36

allows per match

Katsina United

0.58

Gombe United

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Katsina United+0.00on par

Gombe United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Katsina United ↓

Gombe United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Katsina United or draw

90%

Katsina United or Gombe United

78%

Draw or Gombe United

32%

Winning margin

Katsina United wins by 2+

40%

Gombe United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Katsina United 1+ goals

82%

Katsina United 2+ goals

52%

Katsina United 3+ goals

25%

Gombe United 1+ goals

37%

Gombe United 2+ goals

8%

Gombe United 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Katsina United (draw refunded)

88%

Gombe United (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Katsina United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.58 · 118 matches

Gombe United away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.88 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Katsina United attack 1.57 + Gombe United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Gombe United attack 0.36 + Katsina United defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Katsina United scores more

68%

level

22%

Gombe United scores more

10%

Katsina United at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Katsina United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff