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Kastrioti Krujë vs Tërbuni Pukë — 1st Division 2019

Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
10/5/20191st Division1st Division · Round 4Stadiumi Redi Maloku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Kastrioti Krujë50%
×Draw28%
Tërbuni Pukë22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kastrioti Krujë
1.38
Tërbuni Pukë
0.81

Kastrioti Krujë creates 70% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 39 away

creates per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.52
Tërbuni Pukë
0.51

allows per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.10
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23

finishing

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par
Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kastrioti Krujë ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kastrioti Krujë or draw
78%
Kastrioti Krujë or Tërbuni Pukë
72%
Draw or Tërbuni Pukë
50%

Winning margin

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
24%
Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
75%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
40%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
16%
Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
56%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
19%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
70%
Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kastrioti Krujë at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 63 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kastrioti Krujë attack 1.52 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kastrioti Krujë scores more
50%
level
28%
Tërbuni Pukë scores more
22%

Kastrioti Krujë at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kastrioti Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kastrioti Krujë vs Tërbuni Pukë

Kastrioti Krujë and Tërbuni Pukë drew 0-0 in 1st Division on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Redi Maloku in Fushë-Krujë.