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Kastrioti Krujë vs FK Kukesi — 1st Division 2019

Kastrioti Krujë
Kastrioti Krujë
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
3/30/20251st Division1st Division · Round 30Stadiumi Redi Maloku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kastrioti Krujë55%
×Draw25%
FK Kukesi20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kastrioti Krujë
1.63
FK Kukesi
0.88

Kastrioti Krujë creates 85% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.52
FK Kukesi
0.66

allows per match

Kastrioti Krujë
1.10
FK Kukesi
1.74

finishing

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par
FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kastrioti Krujë ↓

FK Kukesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kastrioti Krujë or draw
80%
Kastrioti Krujë or FK Kukesi
75%
Draw or FK Kukesi
45%

Winning margin

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+
30%
FK Kukesi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals
80%
Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals
48%
Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals
22%
FK Kukesi 1+ goals
59%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
22%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)
73%
FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kastrioti Krujë at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 63 matches

FK Kukesi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.74 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kastrioti Krujë attack 1.52 + FK Kukesi defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.63

FK Kukesi attack 0.66 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kastrioti Krujë scores more
55%
level
25%
FK Kukesi scores more
20%

Kastrioti Krujë at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kastrioti Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Kastrioti Krujë 2–0 FK Kukesi

Kastrioti Krujë beat FK Kukesi 2-0 in 1st Division on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi Redi Maloku in Fushë-Krujë.