Kastrioti Krujë 2–2 Erzeni Shijak: Result & Stats

Kastrioti Krujë

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Erzeni Shijak

2/7/2023

Superliga · Round 20Stadiumi Kamza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kastrioti Krujë41%

×Draw28%

Erzeni Shijak31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kastrioti KrujëExpected goals in this matchErzeni Shijak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.08

Kastrioti Krujë

1.29

Erzeni Shijak

1.08

Kastrioti Krujë creates 19% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 36 away

1.03

creates per match

1.00

1.16

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Kastrioti Krujë

1.03

Erzeni Shijak

1.00

allows per match

Kastrioti Krujë

1.16

Erzeni Shijak

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kastrioti Krujë+0.00on par

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kastrioti Krujë ↓

Erzeni Shijak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kastrioti Krujë or draw

69%

Kastrioti Krujë or Erzeni Shijak

72%

Draw or Erzeni Shijak

59%

Winning margin

Kastrioti Krujë wins by 2+

19%

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kastrioti Krujë 1+ goals

72%

Kastrioti Krujë 2+ goals

37%

Kastrioti Krujë 3+ goals

14%

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals

66%

Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals

29%

Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kastrioti Krujë (draw refunded)

57%

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kastrioti Krujë at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kastrioti Krujë attack 1.03 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.00 + Kastrioti Krujë defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kastrioti Krujë scores more

41%

level

28%

Erzeni Shijak scores more

31%

Kastrioti Krujë at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kastrioti Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff