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Kasserine vs SS Sfaxien — Cup 2019

Kasserine
Kasserine
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SS Sfaxien
SS Sfaxien
M. Mejri 7' (pen)
1/30/2022CupCup · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade de Kasserine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kasserine72%
×Draw20%
SS Sfaxien7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasserine
1.82
SS Sfaxien
0.40

Kasserine creates 355% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kasserine
2.25
SS Sfaxien
0.80

allows per match

Kasserine
0.00
SS Sfaxien
1.40

finishing

Kasserine+0.00on par
SS Sfaxien+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasserine ↓

SS Sfaxien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kasserine or draw
93%
Kasserine or SS Sfaxien
80%
Draw or SS Sfaxien
28%

Winning margin

Kasserine wins by 2+
44%
SS Sfaxien wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Kasserine 1+ goals
84%
Kasserine 2+ goals
54%
Kasserine 3+ goals
27%
SS Sfaxien 1+ goals
33%
SS Sfaxien 2+ goals
6%
SS Sfaxien 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Kasserine (draw refunded)
91%
SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasserine at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

SS Sfaxien away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasserine attack 2.25 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

SS Sfaxien attack 0.80 + Kasserine defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Kasserine scores more
72%
level
20%
SS Sfaxien scores more
7%

Kasserine at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Kasserine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
M. MejriPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasserine vs SS Sfaxien

Kasserine beat SS Sfaxien 1-0 in Cup on January 30, 2022.

Goals: M. Mejri (7' pen).

The match was played at Stade de Kasserine in Kasserine.