Kasserine 1–1 Radès: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Kasserine

FT

1 – 1

Radès

2/7/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade de Kasserine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Kasserine59%

×Draw25%

Radès16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KasserineExpected goals in this matchRadès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.66

Kasserine

1.55

Radès

0.66

Kasserine creates 135% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 47 away

1.48

creates per match

0.74

0.58

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Kasserine

1.48

Radès

0.74

allows per match

Kasserine

0.58

Radès

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kasserine+0.00on par

Radès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasserine ↓

Radès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kasserine or draw

84%

Kasserine or Radès

75%

Draw or Radès

41%

Winning margin

Kasserine wins by 2+

31%

Radès wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kasserine 1+ goals

79%

Kasserine 2+ goals

46%

Kasserine 3+ goals

20%

Radès 1+ goals

48%

Radès 2+ goals

14%

Radès 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Kasserine (draw refunded)

79%

Radès (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasserine at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Radès away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.62 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasserine attack 1.48 + Radès defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.55

Radès attack 0.74 + Kasserine defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kasserine scores more

59%

level

25%

Radès scores more

16%

Kasserine at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kasserine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff