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Kasserine vs Mohammedia — Ligue 2 2020

Kasserine
Kasserine
FT
1 – 0
Mohammedia
Mohammedia
3/20/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade 7 Novembre de Kasserine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kasserine53%
×Draw29%
Mohammedia18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasserine
1.31
Mohammedia
0.63

Kasserine creates 108% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kasserine
1.48
Mohammedia
0.68

allows per match

Kasserine
0.58
Mohammedia
1.14

finishing

Kasserine+0.00on par
Mohammedia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasserine ↓

Mohammedia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kasserine or draw
82%
Kasserine or Mohammedia
71%
Draw or Mohammedia
47%

Winning margin

Kasserine wins by 2+
25%
Mohammedia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kasserine 1+ goals
73%
Kasserine 2+ goals
38%
Kasserine 3+ goals
14%
Mohammedia 1+ goals
47%
Mohammedia 2+ goals
13%
Mohammedia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kasserine (draw refunded)
75%
Mohammedia (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasserine at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Mohammedia away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasserine attack 1.48 + Mohammedia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.31

Mohammedia attack 0.68 + Kasserine defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kasserine scores more
53%
level
29%
Mohammedia scores more
18%

Kasserine at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kasserine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasserine vs Mohammedia

Kasserine beat Mohammedia 1-0 in Ligue 2 on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stade 7 Novembre de Kasserine in Kasserine.