Kaspiy 3–2 Ordabasy: Result & Stats

Kaspiy

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ordabasy

K. Sylla 81'

R. Abylaykhan 56'

V. Klimovich 16'

Z. Amir 90+1'

B. Johnsen 42'

7/11/2026

Premier League · Round 17Zhestar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kaspiy35%

×Draw27%

Ordabasy39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaspiyExpected goals in this matchOrdabasy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.32

Kaspiy

1.23

Ordabasy

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 93 away

1.27

creates per match

1.33

1.31

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Kaspiy

1.27

Ordabasy

1.33

allows per match

Kaspiy

1.31

Ordabasy

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaspiy+0.00on par

Ordabasy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaspiy ↓

Ordabasy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kaspiy or draw

61%

Kaspiy or Ordabasy

73%

Draw or Ordabasy

65%

Winning margin

Kaspiy wins by 2+

15%

Ordabasy wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kaspiy 1+ goals

71%

Kaspiy 2+ goals

35%

Kaspiy 3+ goals

13%

Ordabasy 1+ goals

73%

Ordabasy 2+ goals

38%

Ordabasy 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kaspiy (draw refunded)

47%

Ordabasy (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaspiy at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Ordabasy away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.18 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaspiy attack 1.27 + Ordabasy defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ordabasy attack 1.33 + Kaspiy defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kaspiy scores more

35%

level

27%

Ordabasy scores more

39%

Ordabasy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ordabasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

V. Klimovich↳ P. Sedko

42'

B. Johnsen↳ S. Astanov

46'

Z. Amir← Leo Natel

46'

D. Usenov← M. Serikbay

55'

S. Astanov

56'

R. Abylaykhan

62'

S. Maliy← A. Nurymbet

63'

K. Sylla← R. Abylaykhan

66'

D. Esimbekov← P. Sedko

76'

T. Keita← A. Amanovic

76'

Y. Vakulko← M. Capatina

81'

K. Sylla

83'

A. Nabikhanov← D. Epton

83'

I. Umaev← N. Ndombasi

87'

E. Astanov

88'

K. Sylla

90+1'

Z. Amir

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff