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Kaspiy vs Jas Qyran — Cup 2019

Kaspiy
Kaspiy
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
M. Taykenov 76'
N. Abilkairov 7'
Z. Mukhametkhanov 57'
A. Zhaysanbek 45' (pen)
S. Kabirov 35'
A. Alikhan 5'
3/12/2024CupCup · Qualifying Round - 1BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kaspiy44%
×Draw22%
Jas Qyran35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaspiy
1.93
Jas Qyran
1.70

Kaspiy creates 14% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kaspiy
1.60
Jas Qyran
2.00

allows per match

Kaspiy
1.40
Jas Qyran
2.25

finishing

Kaspiy+0.00on par
Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaspiy ↓

Jas Qyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kaspiy or draw
65%
Kaspiy or Jas Qyran
78%
Draw or Jas Qyran
56%

Winning margin

Kaspiy wins by 2+
24%
Jas Qyran wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kaspiy 1+ goals
85%
Kaspiy 2+ goals
57%
Kaspiy 3+ goals
30%
Jas Qyran 1+ goals
82%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
51%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kaspiy (draw refunded)
56%
Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaspiy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaspiy attack 1.60 + Jas Qyran defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.93

Jas Qyran attack 2.00 + Kaspiy defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kaspiy scores more
44%
level
22%
Jas Qyran scores more
35%

Kaspiy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kaspiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
A. Alikhan
7'
N. Abilkairov
29'
D. Alimzhan
34'
D. Berdibek
35'
S. Kabirov
45'
A. ZhaysanbekPenalty
51'
57'
Z. Mukhametkhanov
64'
N. Abdulla← N. Abdulla
74'
A. Mansurov← A. Mansurov
74'
A. Abdigali← A. Abdigali
76'
M. Taykenov
80'
Nizamidinov← Nizamidinov
85'
A. Abdigali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaspiy vs Jas Qyran

Jas Qyran beat Kaspiy 4-2 in Cup on March 12, 2024.

Goals: A. Alikhan (5'), N. Abilkairov (7'), S. Kabirov (35'), A. Zhaysanbek (45' pen), Z. Mukhametkhanov (57'), M. Taykenov (76').

The match was played at BIIK Futbol'noye Pole in Shymkent.