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Kaspiy vs FC Astana — Premier League 2019

Kaspiy
Kaspiy
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Astana
FC Astana
7/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Stadion Jas kanat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kaspiy30%
×Draw27%
FC Astana43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaspiy
1.09
FC Astana
1.38

FC Astana creates 27% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 93 away

creates per match

Kaspiy
1.27
FC Astana
1.45

allows per match

Kaspiy
1.31
FC Astana
0.92

finishing

Kaspiy+0.00on par
FC Astana+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaspiy ↓

FC Astana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kaspiy or draw
57%
Kaspiy or FC Astana
73%
Draw or FC Astana
70%

Winning margin

Kaspiy wins by 2+
12%
FC Astana wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kaspiy 1+ goals
66%
Kaspiy 2+ goals
30%
Kaspiy 3+ goals
10%
FC Astana 1+ goals
75%
FC Astana 2+ goals
40%
FC Astana 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kaspiy (draw refunded)
41%
FC Astana (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaspiy at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

FC Astana away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaspiy attack 1.27 + FC Astana defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.09

FC Astana attack 1.45 + Kaspiy defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kaspiy scores more
30%
level
27%
FC Astana scores more
43%

FC Astana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Astana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kaspiy 1–2 FC Astana

FC Astana beat Kaspiy 2-1 in Premier League on July 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Jas kanat in Aktau.