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Kaspiy vs Arys — 1. Division 2019

Kaspiy
Kaspiy
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Arys
Arys
10/25/20241. Division1. Division · Round 30Stadïon Ämïn Tuyaqov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kaspiy67%
×Draw17%
Arys15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaspiy
2.54
Arys
1.13

Kaspiy creates 125% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

creates per match

Kaspiy
2.73
Arys
1.30

allows per match

Kaspiy
0.95
Arys
2.35

finishing

Kaspiy+0.00on par
Arys+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaspiy ↓

Arys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kaspiy or draw
85%
Kaspiy or Arys
83%
Draw or Arys
33%

Winning margin

Kaspiy wins by 2+
46%
Arys wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kaspiy 1+ goals
92%
Kaspiy 2+ goals
72%
Kaspiy 3+ goals
46%
Arys 1+ goals
68%
Arys 2+ goals
31%
Arys 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kaspiy (draw refunded)
82%
Arys (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaspiy at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

Arys away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.35 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaspiy attack 2.73 + Arys defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.54

Arys attack 1.30 + Kaspiy defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kaspiy scores more
67%
level
17%
Arys scores more
15%

Kaspiy at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kaspiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaspiy 6 – 1 Arys

Kaspiy beat Arys 6-1 in 1. Division on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadïon Ämïn Tuyaqov in Zhanaozen.