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IMT Novi Beograd vs Crvena Zvezda MML — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

IMT Novi Beograd
IMT Novi Beograd
CANC
00:00
Crvena Zvezda MML
Crvena Zvezda MML
5/9/2020Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd81%
×Draw13%
Crvena Zvezda MML6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IMT Novi Beograd
2.65
Crvena Zvezda MML
0.60

IMT Novi Beograd creates 342% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 27 away

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd
3.30
Crvena Zvezda MML
0.81

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd
0.40
Crvena Zvezda MML
2.00

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par
Crvena Zvezda MML+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

Crvena Zvezda MML →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw
94%
IMT Novi Beograd or Crvena Zvezda MML
87%
Draw or Crvena Zvezda MML
19%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+
59%
Crvena Zvezda MML wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals
93%
IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals
74%
IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals
48%
Crvena Zvezda MML 1+ goals
45%
Crvena Zvezda MML 2+ goals
12%
Crvena Zvezda MML 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
93%
Crvena Zvezda MML (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 3.30, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Crvena Zvezda MML away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 3.30 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.65

Crvena Zvezda MML attack 0.81 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more
81%
level
13%
Crvena Zvezda MML scores more
6%

IMT Novi Beograd at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

IMT Novi Beograd face Crvena Zvezda MML (Srpska Liga - Belgrade)

Srpska Liga - Belgrade returns with IMT Novi Beograd hosting Crvena Zvezda MML. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.