Kashiwa Reysol 4–1 Renofa Yamaguchi: Result & Stats

Kashiwa Reysol

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Renofa Yamaguchi

8/10/2019

J2 League · Round 27SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium (Kashiwa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol64%

×Draw20%

Renofa Yamaguchi15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kashiwa ReysolExpected goals in this matchRenofa Yamaguchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.87

Kashiwa Reysol

2.04

Renofa Yamaguchi

0.87

Kashiwa Reysol creates 134% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 168 away

2.57

creates per match

0.98

0.76

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol

2.57

Renofa Yamaguchi

0.98

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol

0.76

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw

85%

Kashiwa Reysol or Renofa Yamaguchi

80%

Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi

36%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+

40%

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals

87%

Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals

60%

Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals

33%

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals

58%

Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals

22%

Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)

81%

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.76 · 21 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 2.57 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.04

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more

64%

level

20%

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more

15%

Kashiwa Reysol at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff