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Kashiwa Reysol vs JEF United Chiba — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
JEF United Chiba
JEF United Chiba
Matheus Savio 90+5'
Dudu 81'
H. Komori 37'
2/18/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol45%
×Draw24%
JEF United Chiba31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashiwa Reysol
1.67
JEF United Chiba
1.33

Kashiwa Reysol creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol
1.33
JEF United Chiba
1.67

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol
1.00
JEF United Chiba
2.00

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par
JEF United Chiba+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

JEF United Chiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw
69%
Kashiwa Reysol or JEF United Chiba
76%
Draw or JEF United Chiba
55%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
24%
JEF United Chiba wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
81%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
50%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
23%
JEF United Chiba 1+ goals
74%
JEF United Chiba 2+ goals
38%
JEF United Chiba 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
60%
JEF United Chiba (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

JEF United Chiba away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.33 + JEF United Chiba defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

JEF United Chiba attack 1.67 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more
45%
level
24%
JEF United Chiba scores more
31%

Kashiwa Reysol at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
E. Shirai
37'
H. Komori
53'
Y. Yamada
71'
T. Taguchi
81'
Dudu
90+5'
Matheus Savio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Kashiwa Reysol 1–2 JEF United Chiba

JEF United Chiba beat Kashiwa Reysol 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 18, 2024.

Goals: H. Komori (37'), Dudu (81'), Matheus Savio (90+5').

The match was played at SANKYO FRONTIER Kashiwa Stadium in Kashiwa.