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Kashima vs Tokushima Vortis — J1 League 2018

Kashima
Kashima
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
5/17/2014J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 14Kashima Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Kashima57%
×Draw24%
Tokushima Vortis18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashima
1.65
Tokushima Vortis
0.81

Kashima creates 104% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 23 away

creates per match

Kashima
1.55
Tokushima Vortis
0.74

allows per match

Kashima
0.89
Tokushima Vortis
1.74

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par
Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Tokushima Vortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kashima or draw
82%
Kashima or Tokushima Vortis
76%
Draw or Tokushima Vortis
43%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+
31%
Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals
81%
Kashima 2+ goals
49%
Kashima 3+ goals
23%
Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
56%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
19%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)
76%
Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.89 · 152 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.55 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.65

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.74 + Kashima defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kashima scores more
57%
level
24%
Tokushima Vortis scores more
18%

Kashima at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Kashima 1–0 Tokushima Vortis

Kashima beat Tokushima Vortis 1-0 in J1 League on May 17, 2014.

The match was played at Kashima Soccer Stadium in Kashima.