Kashima 3–2 Suwon Bluewings: Result & Stats

Kashima

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Suwon Bluewings

10/3/2018

AFC Champions League · Semi-finalsKashima Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kashima36%

×Draw27%

Suwon Bluewings38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KashimaExpected goals in this matchSuwon Bluewings

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.28

Kashima

1.24

Suwon Bluewings

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.57

creates per match

1.70

0.86

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Kashima

1.57

Suwon Bluewings

1.70

allows per match

Kashima

0.86

Suwon Bluewings

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par

Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Suwon Bluewings →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kashima or draw

62%

Kashima or Suwon Bluewings

73%

Draw or Suwon Bluewings

64%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+

15%

Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals

71%

Kashima 2+ goals

35%

Kashima 3+ goals

13%

Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals

72%

Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals

37%

Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)

49%

Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Suwon Bluewings away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.57 + Suwon Bluewings defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.24

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.70 + Kashima defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kashima scores more

36%

level

27%

Suwon Bluewings scores more

38%

Suwon Bluewings at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Suwon Bluewings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff