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Kashima vs Shanghai Shenhua — AFC Champions League 2018

Kashima
Kashima
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
Y. Endo 51'
G. Moreno 3'
2/14/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Kashima Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kashima58%
×Draw25%
Shanghai Shenhua18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashima
1.62
Shanghai Shenhua
0.77

Kashima creates 110% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kashima
1.57
Shanghai Shenhua
0.67

allows per match

Kashima
0.86
Shanghai Shenhua
1.67

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kashima or draw
82%
Kashima or Shanghai Shenhua
75%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
42%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+
31%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals
80%
Kashima 2+ goals
48%
Kashima 3+ goals
22%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
54%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
18%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)
77%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.57 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.67 + Kashima defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kashima scores more
58%
level
25%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
18%

Kashima at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
Y. EndoKashimaKashima · M
7.8

Match Events

3'
G. Moreno
21'
Pedro Junior
38'
Zhang Lu← Liu Ruofan
45'
Yunqiu Li
51'
Y. Endo
55'
Gen Shoji
69'
S. Doi← Y. Endo
71'
Wang Yun← G. Moreno
82'
A. Nakamura← H. Abe
90+2'
Mao Jianqing← O. Martins

Possession

70%Kashima

Shots

25Kashima

Pass accuracy

57%Kashima

Statistics

KashimaShanghai
Overview
70%Possession30%
25Total Shots12
7Corners3
15Fouls9
Shots
25Total Shots12
7On Target4
6Off Target6
12Blocked2
14Inside Box9
11Outside Box3
Passing
70%Possession30%
586Total Passes250
510Accurate Passes165
87%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Kashima vs Shanghai Shenhua

Kashima and Shanghai Shenhua drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on February 14, 2018.

Goals: G. Moreno (3'), Y. Endo (51').

Kashima controlled possession (70%) and registered 25 shots to 12.

The match was played at Kashima Soccer Stadium in Kashima.