Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kashima vs Persepolis FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Kashima
Kashima
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Persepolis FC
Persepolis FC
11/3/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · FinalsKashima Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kashima49%
×Draw27%
Persepolis FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashima
1.41
Persepolis FC
0.88

Kashima creates 60% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

creates per match

Kashima
1.57
Persepolis FC
0.89

allows per match

Kashima
0.86
Persepolis FC
1.25

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par
Persepolis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Persepolis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kashima or draw
77%
Kashima or Persepolis FC
73%
Draw or Persepolis FC
51%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+
24%
Persepolis FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals
76%
Kashima 2+ goals
41%
Kashima 3+ goals
17%
Persepolis FC 1+ goals
59%
Persepolis FC 2+ goals
22%
Persepolis FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)
68%
Persepolis FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Persepolis FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.57 + Persepolis FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Persepolis FC attack 0.89 + Kashima defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kashima scores more
49%
level
27%
Persepolis FC scores more
23%

Kashima at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Kashima 2–0 Persepolis FC

Kashima beat Persepolis FC 2-0 in AFC Champions League on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Kashima Soccer Stadium in Kashima.