Kashima 2–1 Johor Darul Takzim FC: Result & Stats

Kashima

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Johor Darul Takzim FC

3/5/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Kashima Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kashima56%

×Draw23%

Johor Darul Takzim FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KashimaExpected goals in this matchJohor Darul Takzim FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.97

Kashima

1.77

Johor Darul Takzim FC

0.97

Kashima creates 82% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

1.57

creates per match

1.08

0.86

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Kashima

1.57

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.08

allows per match

Kashima

0.86

Johor Darul Takzim FC

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par

Johor Darul Takzim FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Johor Darul Takzim FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kashima or draw

79%

Kashima or Johor Darul Takzim FC

77%

Draw or Johor Darul Takzim FC

44%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+

32%

Johor Darul Takzim FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals

83%

Kashima 2+ goals

53%

Kashima 3+ goals

26%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 1+ goals

62%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 2+ goals

25%

Johor Darul Takzim FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)

73%

Johor Darul Takzim FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Johor Darul Takzim FC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.57 + Johor Darul Takzim FC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.77

Johor Darul Takzim FC attack 1.08 + Kashima defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kashima scores more

56%

level

23%

Johor Darul Takzim FC scores more

21%

Kashima at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff