Kasetsart FC 1–0 Sisaket United: Result & Stats

Kasetsart FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sisaket United

3/29/2025

Thai League 2 · Round 30Intree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kasetsart FC43%

×Draw28%

Sisaket United29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kasetsart FCExpected goals in this matchSisaket United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.01

Kasetsart FC

1.31

Sisaket United

1.01

Kasetsart FC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 34 away

1.32

creates per match

0.82

1.21

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Kasetsart FC

1.32

Sisaket United

0.82

allows per match

Kasetsart FC

1.21

Sisaket United

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Sisaket United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Sisaket United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw

71%

Kasetsart FC or Sisaket United

72%

Draw or Sisaket United

57%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

20%

Sisaket United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

73%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

38%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

14%

Sisaket United 1+ goals

64%

Sisaket United 2+ goals

27%

Sisaket United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

60%

Sisaket United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Sisaket United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Sisaket United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sisaket United attack 0.82 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more

43%

level

28%

Sisaket United scores more

29%

Kasetsart FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff