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Kasetsart FC vs Roi Et — FA Cup 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Roi Et
Roi Et
9/11/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundIntree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kasetsart FC82%
×Draw10%
Roi Et8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
4.50
Roi Et
1.50

Kasetsart FC creates 200% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
4.75
Roi Et
0.75

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
2.25
Roi Et
4.25

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Roi Et+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Roi Et →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–18%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
82%18%4.5
66%34%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
92%
Kasetsart FC or Roi Et
90%
Draw or Roi Et
18%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
67%
Roi Et wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
99%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
93%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
79%
Roi Et 1+ goals
78%
Roi Et 2+ goals
44%
Roi Et 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
91%
Roi Et (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 4.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Roi Et away — creates 0.75, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 4.75 + Roi Et defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 4.50

Roi Et attack 0.75 + Kasetsart FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
82%
level
10%
Roi Et scores more
8%

Kasetsart FC at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasetsart FC vs Roi Et

Kasetsart FC and Roi Et drew 1-1 in FA Cup on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Intree Chantarasatit Stadium in Bangkok.