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Kasetsart FC vs Raj Pracha — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
1/13/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 19Intree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kasetsart FC46%
×Draw28%
Raj Pracha26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.36
Raj Pracha
0.95

Kasetsart FC creates 43% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 34 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
Raj Pracha
0.68

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.22
Raj Pracha
1.41

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Raj Pracha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
74%
Kasetsart FC or Raj Pracha
72%
Draw or Raj Pracha
54%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
22%
Raj Pracha wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
74%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
39%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
16%
Raj Pracha 1+ goals
61%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
25%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
64%
Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 132 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Raj Pracha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Raj Pracha attack 0.68 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
46%
level
28%
Raj Pracha scores more
26%

Kasetsart FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Kasetsart FC 1–1 Raj Pracha

Kasetsart FC and Raj Pracha drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on January 13, 2023.

The match was played at Intree Chantarasatit Stadium in Bangkok.