Kasetsart FC 1–0 Navy FC: Result & Stats

Kasetsart FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Navy FC

2/13/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 23Intree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kasetsart FC51%

×Draw24%

Navy FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kasetsart FCExpected goals in this matchNavy FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.11

Kasetsart FC

1.69

Navy FC

1.11

Kasetsart FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 51 away

1.32

creates per match

1.02

1.21

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Kasetsart FC

1.32

Navy FC

1.02

allows per match

Kasetsart FC

1.21

Navy FC

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Navy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Navy FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw

75%

Kasetsart FC or Navy FC

76%

Draw or Navy FC

49%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

27%

Navy FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

82%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

50%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

24%

Navy FC 1+ goals

67%

Navy FC 2+ goals

30%

Navy FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

67%

Navy FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Navy FC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Navy FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.69

Navy FC attack 1.02 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more

51%

level

24%

Navy FC scores more

25%

Kasetsart FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff