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Kasetsart FC vs Nakhon Pathom — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
10/23/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 10Intree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Kasetsart FC37%
×Draw28%
Nakhon Pathom35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.17
Nakhon Pathom
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 70 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
Nakhon Pathom
1.04

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.22
Nakhon Pathom
1.01

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Nakhon Pathom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
65%
Kasetsart FC or Nakhon Pathom
72%
Draw or Nakhon Pathom
63%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
15%
Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
69%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
33%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
11%
Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
68%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
31%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
51%
Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 132 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.04 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
37%
level
28%
Nakhon Pathom scores more
35%

Kasetsart FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasetsart FC vs Nakhon Pathom

Kasetsart FC beat Nakhon Pathom 1-0 in Thai League 2 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Intree Chantarasatit Stadium in Bangkok.