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Kasetsart FC vs Krabi FC — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Krabi FC
Krabi FC
11/5/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 12Intree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Kasetsart FC54%
×Draw23%
Krabi FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.77
Krabi FC
1.07

Kasetsart FC creates 65% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 48 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
Krabi FC
0.94

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.21
Krabi FC
2.21

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Krabi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
77%
Kasetsart FC or Krabi FC
77%
Draw or Krabi FC
46%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
30%
Krabi FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
83%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
53%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
26%
Krabi FC 1+ goals
66%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
29%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
70%
Krabi FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.21 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Krabi FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.77

Krabi FC attack 0.94 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
54%
level
23%
Krabi FC scores more
23%

Kasetsart FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasetsart FC vs Krabi FC

Kasetsart FC beat Krabi FC 5-0 in Thai League 2 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Intree Chantarasatit Stadium in Bangkok.