Kasetsart FC 5–0 Krabi FC: Result & Stats

Kasetsart FC

FT

5 – 0

Krabi FC

3/10/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 5TOT Stadium Chaeng Wattana (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Kasetsart FC53%

×Draw24%

Krabi FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kasetsart FCExpected goals in this matchKrabi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.08

Kasetsart FC

1.75

Krabi FC

1.08

Kasetsart FC creates 62% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 47 away

1.32

creates per match

0.94

1.22

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Kasetsart FC

1.32

Krabi FC

0.94

allows per match

Kasetsart FC

1.22

Krabi FC

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Krabi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw

77%

Kasetsart FC or Krabi FC

76%

Draw or Krabi FC

47%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

29%

Krabi FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

83%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

52%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

25%

Krabi FC 1+ goals

66%

Krabi FC 2+ goals

29%

Krabi FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

69%

Krabi FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 132 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Krabi FC defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.75

Krabi FC attack 0.94 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more

53%

level

24%

Krabi FC scores more

23%

Kasetsart FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff