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Kasetsart FC vs Khon Kaen United — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Khon Kaen United
Khon Kaen United
12/12/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 17Insee Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kasetsart FC41%
×Draw25%
Khon Kaen United34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.46
Khon Kaen United
1.30

Kasetsart FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
Khon Kaen United
1.40

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.21
Khon Kaen United
1.60

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Khon Kaen United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Khon Kaen United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
66%
Kasetsart FC or Khon Kaen United
75%
Draw or Khon Kaen United
59%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
20%
Khon Kaen United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
77%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
43%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
18%
Khon Kaen United 1+ goals
73%
Khon Kaen United 2+ goals
37%
Khon Kaen United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
55%
Khon Kaen United (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Khon Kaen United away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Khon Kaen United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

Khon Kaen United attack 1.40 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
41%
level
25%
Khon Kaen United scores more
34%

Kasetsart FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasetsart FC vs Khon Kaen United

Kasetsart FC and Khon Kaen United drew 3-3 in Thai League 2 on December 12, 2025.

The match was played at Insee Chantarasatit Stadium.