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Kasetsart FC vs Chiangmai FC — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
1 – 2
Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
2/7/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 19Intree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Kasetsart FC40%
×Draw27%
Chiangmai FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.35
Chiangmai FC
1.21

Kasetsart FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 82 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
Chiangmai FC
1.20

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.21
Chiangmai FC
1.39

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Chiangmai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
67%
Kasetsart FC or Chiangmai FC
73%
Draw or Chiangmai FC
60%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
18%
Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
74%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
39%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
15%
Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
70%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
34%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
54%
Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chiangmai FC attack 1.20 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
40%
level
27%
Chiangmai FC scores more
33%

Kasetsart FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Kasetsart FC 1–2 Chiangmai FC

Chiangmai FC beat Kasetsart FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Intree Chantarasatit Stadium in Bangkok.