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Chiangmai FC vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
1/15/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 19700th Anniversary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Chiangmai FC56%
×Draw23%
Kasetsart FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangmai FC
1.81
Kasetsart FC
1.00

Chiangmai FC creates 81% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 132 away

creates per match

Chiangmai FC
1.78
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Chiangmai FC
1.12
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw
79%
Chiangmai FC or Kasetsart FC
77%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
44%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
32%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
84%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
54%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
27%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
63%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
26%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
73%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.78 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more
56%
level
23%
Kasetsart FC scores more
21%

Chiangmai FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chiangmai FC vs Kasetsart FC

Chiangmai FC beat Kasetsart FC 2-0 in Thai League 2 on January 15, 2022.

The match was played at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Chiang Mai.