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Kasetsart FC vs Ayutthaya FC — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
1/28/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 21Intree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Kasetsart FC40%
×Draw26%
Ayutthaya FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.35
Ayutthaya FC
1.23

Kasetsart FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 101 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
Ayutthaya FC
1.25

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.21
Ayutthaya FC
1.38

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Ayutthaya FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
66%
Kasetsart FC or Ayutthaya FC
74%
Draw or Ayutthaya FC
60%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
18%
Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
74%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
39%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
15%
Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
71%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
35%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
54%
Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
40%
level
26%
Ayutthaya FC scores more
34%

Kasetsart FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Kasetsart FC 1–3 Ayutthaya FC

Ayutthaya FC beat Kasetsart FC 3-1 in Thai League 2 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Intree Chantarasatit Stadium in Bangkok.