Kasem Bundit University 1–0 Pathum Thani University

Kasem Bundit University

1 – 0

Pathum Thani University

9/7/2024

League Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundKasem Bundit University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kasem Bundit University47%

×Draw22%

Pathum Thani University30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kasem Bundit UniversityExpected goals in this matchPathum Thani University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.50

Kasem Bundit University

1.92

Pathum Thani University

1.50

Kasem Bundit University creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

0.83

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Kasem Bundit University

0.83

Pathum Thani University

1.00

allows per match

Kasem Bundit University

2.00

Pathum Thani University

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kasem Bundit University+0.00on par

Pathum Thani University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasem Bundit University ↓

Pathum Thani University →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kasem Bundit University or draw

70%

Kasem Bundit University or Pathum Thani University

78%

Draw or Pathum Thani University

53%

Winning margin

Kasem Bundit University wins by 2+

26%

Pathum Thani University wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kasem Bundit University 1+ goals

85%

Kasem Bundit University 2+ goals

57%

Kasem Bundit University 3+ goals

30%

Pathum Thani University 1+ goals

78%

Pathum Thani University 2+ goals

44%

Pathum Thani University 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kasem Bundit University (draw refunded)

61%

Pathum Thani University (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kasem Bundit University at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Pathum Thani University away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kasem Bundit University attack 0.83 + Pathum Thani University defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Pathum Thani University attack 1.00 + Kasem Bundit University defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kasem Bundit University scores more

47%

level

22%

Pathum Thani University scores more

30%

Kasem Bundit University at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kasem Bundit University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff