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Kasem Bundit University vs Kabin United — FA Cup 2018

Kasem Bundit University
Kasem Bundit University
FT
2 – 3
Kabin United
Kabin United
10/4/2023FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundKasem Bundit University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kasem Bundit University44%
×Draw21%
Kabin United35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasem Bundit University
2.04
Kabin United
1.79

Kasem Bundit University creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kasem Bundit University
2.33
Kabin United
2.25

allows per match

Kasem Bundit University
1.33
Kabin United
1.75

finishing

Kasem Bundit University+0.00on par
Kabin United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasem Bundit University ↓

Kabin United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kasem Bundit University or draw
65%
Kasem Bundit University or Kabin United
79%
Draw or Kabin United
56%

Winning margin

Kasem Bundit University wins by 2+
25%
Kabin United wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kasem Bundit University 1+ goals
87%
Kasem Bundit University 2+ goals
60%
Kasem Bundit University 3+ goals
33%
Kabin United 1+ goals
83%
Kabin United 2+ goals
53%
Kabin United 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kasem Bundit University (draw refunded)
56%
Kabin United (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasem Bundit University at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Kabin United away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasem Bundit University attack 2.33 + Kabin United defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Kabin United attack 2.25 + Kasem Bundit University defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kasem Bundit University scores more
44%
level
21%
Kabin United scores more
35%

Kasem Bundit University at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kasem Bundit University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasem Bundit University vs Kabin United

Kabin United beat Kasem Bundit University 3-2 in FA Cup on October 4, 2023.

The match was played at Kasem Bundit University Stadium in Bangkok.