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Kasem Bundit University vs Ayutthaya FC — FA Cup 2018

Kasem Bundit University
Kasem Bundit University
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
9/29/2021FA CupFA Cup · Qualifying RoundKasem Bundit University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kasem Bundit University66%
×Draw17%
Ayutthaya FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasem Bundit University
2.67
Ayutthaya FC
1.29

Kasem Bundit University creates 107% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kasem Bundit University
2.33
Ayutthaya FC
1.25

allows per match

Kasem Bundit University
1.33
Ayutthaya FC
3.00

finishing

Kasem Bundit University+0.00on par
Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasem Bundit University ↓

Ayutthaya FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kasem Bundit University or draw
83%
Kasem Bundit University or Ayutthaya FC
83%
Draw or Ayutthaya FC
34%

Winning margin

Kasem Bundit University wins by 2+
45%
Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kasem Bundit University 1+ goals
93%
Kasem Bundit University 2+ goals
74%
Kasem Bundit University 3+ goals
49%
Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
72%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
37%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kasem Bundit University (draw refunded)
80%
Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasem Bundit University at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasem Bundit University attack 2.33 + Ayutthaya FC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Kasem Bundit University defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kasem Bundit University scores more
66%
level
17%
Ayutthaya FC scores more
17%

Kasem Bundit University at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kasem Bundit University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasem Bundit University vs Ayutthaya FC

Kasem Bundit University and Ayutthaya FC drew 1-1 in FA Cup on September 29, 2021.

The match was played at Kasem Bundit University Stadium in Bangkok.