Kasba Tadla 1–3 Sidi Kacem: Result & Stats

Kasba Tadla

FT

1 – 3

Sidi Kacem

4/27/2019

Botola 2 · Round 30Stade Municipal (Kasba Tadla)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kasba Tadla33%

×Draw28%

Sidi Kacem39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kasba TadlaExpected goals in this matchSidi Kacem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.24

Kasba Tadla

1.13

Sidi Kacem

1.24

Sidi Kacem creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

0.93

creates per match

0.87

1.60

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Kasba Tadla

0.93

Sidi Kacem

0.87

allows per match

Kasba Tadla

1.60

Sidi Kacem

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kasba Tadla+0.00on par

Sidi Kacem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasba Tadla ↓

Sidi Kacem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kasba Tadla or draw

61%

Kasba Tadla or Sidi Kacem

72%

Draw or Sidi Kacem

67%

Winning margin

Kasba Tadla wins by 2+

13%

Sidi Kacem wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kasba Tadla 1+ goals

68%

Kasba Tadla 2+ goals

31%

Kasba Tadla 3+ goals

11%

Sidi Kacem 1+ goals

71%

Sidi Kacem 2+ goals

35%

Sidi Kacem 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)

46%

Sidi Kacem (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasba Tadla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Sidi Kacem away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasba Tadla attack 0.93 + Sidi Kacem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sidi Kacem attack 0.87 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kasba Tadla scores more

33%

level

28%

Sidi Kacem scores more

39%

Sidi Kacem at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sidi Kacem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff