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Kasba Tadla vs Riadi Salmi — Botola 2 2025

Kasba Tadla
Kasba Tadla
FT
1 – 0
Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
1/26/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 17Stade Municipal (Kasba Tadla)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kasba Tadla31%
×Draw27%
Riadi Salmi42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasba Tadla
1.09
Riadi Salmi
1.33

Riadi Salmi creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Kasba Tadla
0.93
Riadi Salmi
1.07

allows per match

Kasba Tadla
1.60
Riadi Salmi
1.25

finishing

Kasba Tadla+0.00on par
Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasba Tadla ↓

Riadi Salmi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kasba Tadla or draw
58%
Kasba Tadla or Riadi Salmi
73%
Draw or Riadi Salmi
69%

Winning margin

Kasba Tadla wins by 2+
12%
Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kasba Tadla 1+ goals
66%
Kasba Tadla 2+ goals
30%
Kasba Tadla 3+ goals
10%
Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
74%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
38%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)
42%
Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasba Tadla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Riadi Salmi away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasba Tadla attack 0.93 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Riadi Salmi attack 1.07 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kasba Tadla scores more
31%
level
27%
Riadi Salmi scores more
42%

Riadi Salmi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Riadi Salmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasba Tadla vs Riadi Salmi

Kasba Tadla beat Riadi Salmi 1-0 in Botola 2 on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal (Kasba Tadla).