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Kasba Tadla vs Raja Beni Mellal — Botola 2 2025

Kasba Tadla
Kasba Tadla
FT
1 – 1
Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
9/22/2018Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 3Stade Municipal (Kasba Tadla)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kasba Tadla30%
×Draw28%
Raja Beni Mellal42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasba Tadla
1.03
Raja Beni Mellal
1.26

Raja Beni Mellal creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 105 away

creates per match

Kasba Tadla
0.93
Raja Beni Mellal
0.91

allows per match

Kasba Tadla
1.60
Raja Beni Mellal
1.12

finishing

Kasba Tadla+0.00on par
Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasba Tadla ↓

Raja Beni Mellal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kasba Tadla or draw
58%
Kasba Tadla or Raja Beni Mellal
72%
Draw or Raja Beni Mellal
70%

Winning margin

Kasba Tadla wins by 2+
11%
Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kasba Tadla 1+ goals
64%
Kasba Tadla 2+ goals
28%
Kasba Tadla 3+ goals
9%
Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
72%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
36%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)
42%
Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasba Tadla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Raja Beni Mellal away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasba Tadla attack 0.93 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.91 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kasba Tadla scores more
30%
level
28%
Raja Beni Mellal scores more
42%

Raja Beni Mellal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Raja Beni Mellal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasba Tadla vs Raja Beni Mellal

Kasba Tadla and Raja Beni Mellal drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Municipal (Kasba Tadla).