Kasba Tadla 0–4 Olympique Dcheïra: Result & Stats

Kasba Tadla

FT

0 – 4

Olympique Dcheïra

4/13/2019

Botola 2 · Round 28Stade Municipal (Kasba Tadla)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kasba Tadla29%

×Draw27%

Olympique Dcheïra44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kasba TadlaExpected goals in this matchOlympique Dcheïra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.36

Kasba Tadla

1.05

Olympique Dcheïra

1.36

Olympique Dcheïra creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 105 away

0.93

creates per match

1.13

1.60

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Kasba Tadla

0.93

Olympique Dcheïra

1.13

allows per match

Kasba Tadla

1.60

Olympique Dcheïra

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kasba Tadla+0.00on par

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasba Tadla ↓

Olympique Dcheïra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kasba Tadla or draw

56%

Kasba Tadla or Olympique Dcheïra

73%

Draw or Olympique Dcheïra

71%

Winning margin

Kasba Tadla wins by 2+

11%

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Kasba Tadla 1+ goals

65%

Kasba Tadla 2+ goals

28%

Kasba Tadla 3+ goals

9%

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals

74%

Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals

39%

Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)

40%

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasba Tadla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Olympique Dcheïra away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.17 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasba Tadla attack 0.93 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.13 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kasba Tadla scores more

29%

level

27%

Olympique Dcheïra scores more

44%

Olympique Dcheïra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Olympique Dcheïra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff