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Kasba Tadla vs Maghreb Fès — Botola 2 2025

Kasba Tadla
Kasba Tadla
FT
2 – 2
Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
12/8/2018Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 12Stade Municipal (Kasba Tadla)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kasba Tadla29%
×Draw28%
Maghreb Fès43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasba Tadla
1.03
Maghreb Fès
1.31

Maghreb Fès creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kasba Tadla
0.93
Maghreb Fès
1.03

allows per match

Kasba Tadla
1.60
Maghreb Fès
1.13

finishing

Kasba Tadla+0.00on par
Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasba Tadla ↓

Maghreb Fès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kasba Tadla or draw
57%
Kasba Tadla or Maghreb Fès
72%
Draw or Maghreb Fès
71%

Winning margin

Kasba Tadla wins by 2+
11%
Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kasba Tadla 1+ goals
64%
Kasba Tadla 2+ goals
28%
Kasba Tadla 3+ goals
9%
Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
73%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
38%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)
41%
Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasba Tadla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasba Tadla attack 0.93 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Maghreb Fès attack 1.03 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kasba Tadla scores more
29%
level
28%
Maghreb Fès scores more
43%

Maghreb Fès at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Maghreb Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Kasba Tadla 2–2 Maghreb Fès

Kasba Tadla and Maghreb Fès drew 2-2 in Botola 2 on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Municipal (Kasba Tadla).