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Kasımpaşa vs Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
10/18/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundRecep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kasımpaşa75%
×Draw14%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasımpaşa
2.93
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
1.03

Kasımpaşa creates 184% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kasımpaşa
2.53
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
0.67

allows per match

Kasımpaşa
1.40
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
3.33

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw
89%
Kasımpaşa or Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
86%
Draw or Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
25%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
55%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
94%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
78%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
55%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 1+ goals
64%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 2+ goals
28%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
88%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 2.53 + Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.93

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu attack 0.67 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more
75%
level
14%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu scores more
11%

Kasımpaşa at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Kasımpaşa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kasımpaşa 1–1 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

Kasımpaşa and Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 18, 2022.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.