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Kasımpaşa vs KVC Westerlo — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
K. Kanatsizkus 32'
F. Diabate 15'
1/9/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kasımpaşa64%
×Draw23%
KVC Westerlo13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasımpaşa
1.77
KVC Westerlo
0.65

Kasımpaşa creates 172% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kasımpaşa
1.75
KVC Westerlo
0.80

allows per match

Kasımpaşa
0.50
KVC Westerlo
1.80

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par
KVC Westerlo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

KVC Westerlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw
87%
Kasımpaşa or KVC Westerlo
77%
Draw or KVC Westerlo
36%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
38%
KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
83%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
53%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
26%
KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
48%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
14%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
83%
KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

KVC Westerlo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 1.75 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

KVC Westerlo attack 0.80 + Kasımpaşa defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more
64%
level
23%
KVC Westerlo scores more
13%

Kasımpaşa at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Kasımpaşa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
F. Diabate
32'
K. Kanatsizkus
Kasımpaşa
KVC
Shota Arveladze
Manager: Shota Arveladze
Issame Charai
Manager: Issame Charai

Match Recap: Kasımpaşa vs KVC Westerlo

Kasımpaşa beat KVC Westerlo 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 9, 2026.

Goals: F. Diabate (15'), K. Kanatsizkus (32').