Kasımpaşa 4–1 Kırşehir Belediyespor: Result & Stats

Kasımpaşa

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Kırşehir Belediyespor

E. Çetinkaya 80' (pen), 61', 43'

I. Gomis 5'

G. Varol 78' (pen)

12/6/2023

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundRecep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kasımpaşa71%

×Draw16%

Kırşehir Belediyespor12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KasımpaşaExpected goals in this matchKırşehir Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

0.97

Kasımpaşa

2.56

Kırşehir Belediyespor

0.97

Kasımpaşa creates 164% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

2.63

creates per match

0.50

1.44

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Kasımpaşa

2.63

Kırşehir Belediyespor

0.50

allows per match

Kasımpaşa

1.44

Kırşehir Belediyespor

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par

Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

Kırşehir Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw

88%

Kasımpaşa or Kırşehir Belediyespor

84%

Draw or Kırşehir Belediyespor

29%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+

49%

Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals

92%

Kasımpaşa 2+ goals

72%

Kasımpaşa 3+ goals

46%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals

62%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals

25%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)

85%

Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 2.63 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.56

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 0.50 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more

71%

level

16%

Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more

12%

Kasımpaşa at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Kasımpaşa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

43'

45'

46'

46'

46'

49'

S. Yazici

55'

C. Dincer

61'

E. Çetinkaya

64'

N. Da Costa

64'

S. Çiftpınar← D. Saddiki

64'

H. Hajradinović← G. Gül

64'

M. Ben Ouanes← J. Ngoy

67'

S. Ciftpinar

70'

S. Yatağan← T. Şahin

74'

E. Yiğit← Nuno da Costa

76'

F. Üge← F. Tütüncü

78'

G. VarolPenalty

80'

E. ÇetinkayaPenalty

86'

Y. Toprak← M. Özyıldırım

Statistics

KasımpaşaKırşehir

Overview

7Corners1

Discipline

2Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Kasımpaşa vs Kırşehir Belediyespor

Kasımpaşa beat Kırşehir Belediyespor 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 6, 2023.

Goals: I. Gomis (5'), E. Çetinkaya (43', 61', 80' pen), G. Varol (78' pen).

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.

Kasımpaşa vs Kırşehir Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: Kasımpaşa vs Kırşehir Belediyespor