Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kasımpaşa vs Bandırmaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
M. Mimaroğlu 40'
1/16/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundRecep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kasımpaşa60%
×Draw18%
Bandırmaspor22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasımpaşa
2.68
Bandırmaspor
1.61

Kasımpaşa creates 66% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kasımpaşa
2.53
Bandırmaspor
1.83

allows per match

Kasımpaşa
1.40
Bandırmaspor
2.83

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par
Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

Bandırmaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw
78%
Kasımpaşa or Bandırmaspor
82%
Draw or Bandırmaspor
40%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
39%
Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
93%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
74%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
49%
Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
80%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
48%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
73%
Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 2.53 + Bandırmaspor defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.68

Bandırmaspor attack 1.83 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more
60%
level
18%
Bandırmaspor scores more
22%

Kasımpaşa at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kasımpaşa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
M. Mimaroğlu↳ N. Foor
46'
G. Gül← S. Dilli
46'
M. Fall← E. Yiğit
46'
M. Djitté← M. Çeçenoğlu
57'
Gökhan Gül
58'
E. Aydoğan← D. Davas
60'
Akin Alkan
79'
S. Piçinciol← M. Çelik
79'
M. Albayrak← M. Mimaroğlu
90+6'
A. Özışıkyıldız← N. Foor

Statistics

KasımpaşaBandırmaspor
Overview
10Corners2
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Kasımpaşa vs Bandırmaspor

Bandırmaspor beat Kasımpaşa 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on January 16, 2024.

Goals: M. Mimaroğlu (40').

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.